Death in Aleppo, victory in Russia, havoc in Europe

Syria’s crisis is set to be bigger and nastier. We can no longer look the other way

We watched in disbelief as Aleppo’s citadel was ravaged by fire, the grand mosque’s minaret was blown off and the ancient souks reduced to rubble. We stared at the before-and-after pictures of the mindless bombardments and the satellite images of ruined settlements. We lamented the human suffering and the destruction of 5,000 years of heritage. For most of us, though, the losses of the past few years have been distant and easy to shut out.

Not any more. Aleppo’s final devastation will reverberate close to home. The Assad regime’s forces, bolstered by the fighter jets sent by Vladimir Putin, are closing in on Syria’s largest city, sending a fresh wave of refugees to the Turkish border. Europe can no longer afford to look the other way.

Syria’s civil war has sparked the worst refugee crisis since the second world war. It has fed into the xenophobia peddled by Europe’s far right and poisoned the political battles over the EU. Now, the crisis is about to grow bigger, and probably nastier, as tens of thousands of Syrians are made homeless.

Yet the world seems more impotent than ever. The Russian president has stolen the lead in the Syrian drama and left everyone else scrambling for a supporting role.

Aleppo is the latest victim of a cynical scramble for regional power. The onslaught by President Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, coincided with what was supposed to be the first step towards a ceasefire and, eventually, peace in Syria. But the talks convened in Geneva last week, and sponsored by Russia and the US, were a diversion. The regime intends to secure a resolution on the battlefield.

For months Russia has been helping Mr Assad wipe out the very same opposition that was invited to Geneva to negotiate. Mr Putin’s aim is to leave only two sides standing in Syria — the regime and Isis — and to challenge the world to make a choice.

The Geneva fiasco was followed by another surreal Syrian event. As the number of refugees mounted, diplomats gathered in London pledged the staggering sum of $11bn in aid to alleviate the suffering.

Syria’s neighbours have taken in 4.5m refugees and are struggling to provide for them. Given the strain on resources it would be unrealistic to expect these countries to take in many more, however much money is offered.

Europe, meanwhile, can ill afford the rising political cost of migration. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor and most generous of European leaders, has seen falling approval ratings and growing opposition to her open-door policy.

A regime victory, leading to an even greater exodus, is not yet inevitable but has become more likely

In the Nordic countries, attitudes to migrants have taken a worrying turn, with Denmark passing a law that allows authorities to seize cash and jewellery from arrivals to pay for their resettlement. In Britain, migration is a crucial battle-line in the run-up to the referendum on EU membership.

Since no country wants to add to its refugee burden, those fleeing Aleppo are stranded on the Syrian side of the border with Turkey. They are being treated as pawns. Europe wants Ankara to take them; Turkey is using them to press Europe and the US to act against the Assad regime. It is possible that, in the end, they will fall victim to Russian strikes, and European governments will be outraged and let in the survivors.

A regime victory in Syria’s civil war, leading to an even greater exodus, is not yet inevitable but it has become more likely in recent weeks. Barring a radical change in US policy, which seems to be to do as little as possible until President Barack Obama’s term expires, it is difficult to see a rapid reversal of the latest gains by Mr Assad.

If the regime prevails in Aleppo, many foreign governments will think it time to forget the rebels and join forces with Russia and Mr Assad to defeat Isis. That fight, after all, has been the west’s priority, even if it was never Moscow’s.

The call will be tempting but it won’t bring an end to Syria’s war or the refugee crisis. Extremism in Syria is, in large part, the product of the regime’s brutality. And so it is into the arms of Isis that many of the rebels embraced by the west will go.

roula.khalaf@ft.com