The spendings and the structure of the public and private sector in Norway, are not sustainable with the drastically reduced petroleum sale based incomes.
Due to its great revenues from the oil sector and accumulation of heavy financial funds from this revenue, Norway is generally regarded as the rich uncle of Europe. But the this country is right now in a deep cisis that will result in economical collapse, powerty and social misery.
THE SYMPTOMS OF THE CRISIS AND WHAT THE CRISIS SOON CAUSES
By medio 2016 the situation within the Norwegian community is as follows:
Home prises in Norway have increased to figures that manyfold exceed the true values of the homes. It is impossible for a Norwegian with an average income to buy a home and pay it off with his income, not even a small apartment.
An average Norwegian have a dept that is impossible to pay down with an average income. Generally Norwegians manage the monthly payment of their old loans temporarily by taking up new loans for a hitgh interest rate.
The average private household income is steadily decreasing, while prizes of all goods are skyrocketing.
There is also a growing bubble in the stock market, that is bond to ripen in a year or so..
The nation as a whole does not have an income that equals its spendings, due to the collapse of oil and gas prices and a depletion of other industries from the Norwegian soil.
The private marker for homes and goods is kept running in a steadily faster speed by banks pumping out credit.
The public sector is kept running in a steadily faster speed by spending from accumulated public funds that are thus emptied.
The Norwegian public infrastructure is badly worn down.
All this will result in a crack in home prizes. The average population will be forced to pay dept by selling their homes, but still have a substantial dept left after selling. It will result in a general poverty in the Norwegisan population. Also the public sector will find itself in a situation of general poverty, and public services will break down. At a somewhat later time the Norwegian stock market will also crack.
THE BUILDING UP TO THE UNMANAGEABLE SITUATION OF TODAY
Around 1/3 of the income of this country was from the petroleum sector until recently.
A substancial part of this income was used on public spendings.
The private sector of the country has some years got into a habit of spendings that are substancially greater then the already high income, and financing much of the spending by establishing steadily greater dept.
By now the surplus from the petroleum sector is nearly nullified due to the fall of petroleum prices. Due to this, Norway now has much less income than that necessary for the traditional consume in public and private sector.
But the public sector has not reduced its spenings, but is increasing it stedily more. The public sector achieves this by using assets in the accumululated funds.
Also the private sector has steadily increased it spenings in spite of the new situation. This has so far been pussible by even more private lone uptake, because the State is pumping money taken from the funds into every sector of the society. Also a steadily reduction in interest rates has so far been used as a means of holding the spendings high.
The steadily greater loan uptakes have made Norwegian citizens among the heaviest dept burdened in the whole world,
Also due to speculation, due to grand scale manipulation by banks and real estate brokers, and due to the easy access of money for private citizens, the home prizes in Norway has risen to hights that perhaps fourfold exceeds the real value of average hooses and appartments. Norway has by now the worst home bubble in the whole World.
THE SOCIETY WILL SEE A DRASTIC REDUCTION IN MONEY DISPOSIBEL FOR SPENDING WITH DARE CONSEQUENCES
But living off the funds can only continue for a limited period, and fairly soon this source of money will get dried up. Also at some point the banks will rise the interest rates, due to international rise of the rates and due to the need to compensate for losses as the situation in Norway worsens. The Norwegian cociety will sudenly find itself in the following situation:
- The public sector must drastically reduce its spendings in all sectors.
- The private sector will find the revenues drastically decreasing, something which actually already is happening.
- Also the private sector will have to reduce their consume drasticallly.
- Private citizens with an average degree of dept will not be able to pay on their loans.
- A grand scale sell-off of homes and shares will result from these factors.
STOCK AND HOME PRICES WILL CRACK
From this situation the following will result.
- There will be a crack in home prizes to a level near to the level the prizes had before they began to soar. This will mean 80% reduction in home prices.
- The Norwegian stock market will crack likewise, which means a 70% reduction of average stock prices.
- Bank and other lenders will be forced to accepts horrible loss on lones an get into great trouble that the Norwegian state will not be able to bale them out from, which means bank banjrupsies and loss of peoples saved money.
- The average Norwegian citizen will find himself in a situation that will be totally impossible to manage with standard means.
RISE IN BANCRUPSIES AND UNEMPLOYMENT
But the way towards this situation, and even more the situation itself when it occurs, have further consequences:
- A great many Norwegian companies will go bankrupt, because most Norwegian companies are themselvs in the pertoleum sector or haventhe petroleun sector as the most important customer, or are dependent of sales to the public sector, something already happening.
- Those not going bankrupt will have to reduce their activity to match spenings with a reduced income, which also is already happening.
- The unemployment rates will soar to a conciderable percentage of the population, which also is beginning to occur.
But the misery does not end here, Norway also have the following social and economical burdens:
- Norway like other European countries is burdened by a steadily greater stream of impoverished immigrants with a law skill levels.
- Due to reduced economical prospectives, foreigners already established in Norway, will however leave the country, but those leaving are the skillful ones.
- Norway is steadily more ridden by religious, or quasi-rligious fanatism, and the fanatism is not only confined to the Islamic sector.
- Norway nearly totally lacks inventiveness, due to the psychological work-up of the population, which will be a hinder for finding solutions for the difficulties.
- Some inventive startups in new sectors occur however, but when a new inventive company has shown to be successful, it is usually sold to foreign interests that bring patents and production out of Norway.
It is hard to see any way Norway will manage the situation developing in an effective way. The country is on an inevitable way towards powerty and general social crisis. It is however difficult to know what definite symptoms this crisis will show, but perhaps one can get an idea by looking at Hellas and Spain.
Knut Holt is a business consultant, writer and marketer focusing on science and on on the health field. At his site you can get a lot of tips regarding disease cures, fitness and sexuality, and find exciting products for the same purposes