«La frammentazione dell’economia globale in blocchi rivali rischia di provocare una nuova Guerra Fredda». A dirlo è Kristalina Georgieva, amministratore delegato del Fondo monetario internazionale, [...]. «Tutto questo ha provocato una frammentazione potenzialmente molto pericolosa».
È possibile, secondo Georgieva, che parte i problemi attuali siano stati acuiti dal gruppo del G7, i principali Paesi industrializzati, che stanno riorganizzando le loro filiere di produzione provando a ridurre la dipendenza dalla Cina, considerato un partner non affidabile (soprattutto per motivi politici e di valori), costruendo catene di approvvigionamento alternative: il gruppo – composto da Stati Uniti, Regno Unito, Giappone, Germania, Francia, Italia e Canada – ha dichiarato in un comunicato pubblicato dopo una riunione dei ministri delle Finanze a Washington che sta esplorando la possibilità di sviluppare una partnership «reciprocamente vantaggiosa» con Paesi a basso e medio reddito.
La frammentazione di commerciale, avvisa Georgieva, comporta rischi altissimi. «Purtroppo dobbiamo riconoscere che non possiamo dare la pace per scontata. L’invasione della Russia non è solo una tragedia per il popolo ucraino, lo è per tutta la comunità globale globale, con l spesa per gli armamenti difensivi che è aumentata in molti Paesi. Dobbiamo chiederci se possiamo davvero migliorare la sicurezza del nostro commercio e delle nostre economie senza spingere il mondo verso una nuova Guerra Fredda: io penso ancora che sia possibile».
I problemi economici sono anche quelli dettati da un’inflazione che resta ostinatamente alta da diverse settimane, anzi mesi. Per l’amministratore delegato del Fondo monetario internazionale l’economia globale tutto sommato si è dimostrata resistente agli shock globali negli ultimi tre anni, ma è evidente che debba ancora superare questa fase di crescita debole.
«L’inflazione», dice Georgieva, «è diventata sempre più un problema dopo le recenti difficoltà del settore bancario: dobbiamo imparare a salvaguardare la stabilità finanziaria dei nostri sistemi. La chiave è monitorare i rischi che potrebbero nascondersi nell’ombra, sia per quanto riguarda le banche e sia per quanto riguarda gli istituti finanziari non bancari, e lo stesso vale per settori come gli immobili commerciali. Vigilare è un imperativo».
Georgieva ha fatto sapere che le stime del Fondo monetario internazionale prevedono un rallentamento nella crescita economica globale, introno al 2,8 per cento per quest’anno, rimanendo debole intorno al tre per cento nei prossimi cinque anni.
G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors’ Statement
Washington D.C., 12 April 2023
We, the G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors, met in Washington D.C., joined by the
Heads of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group, Organisation for Economic
Cooperation and Development, and Financial Stability Board. We were honored to be joined by the
Ukrainian Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko.
1. We discussed recent global economic and financial sector developments and reiterate our
determination to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability. Global growth has proved to
be more resilient than expected. Inflation remains elevated and central banks remain strongly
committed to achieving price stability. At the same time, recent financial sector developments
highlight the uncertainty about the global economic outlook and the need to stay vigilant. We
reaffirm that the financial system is resilient, supported by relevant authorities’ prompt
responses as well as the financial regulatory reforms implemented after the 2008 global
financial crisis. We will continue to closely monitor financial sector developments and stand
ready to take appropriate actions to maintain the stability and resilience of the global financial
system.
2. Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine continues to cause immense human suffering
and exacerbate global economic challenges including through adding to inflationary pressures,
disrupting supply chains and heightening food and energy insecurity. We reaffirm our
unwavering support for Ukraine and unity in our condemnation of Russia’s war of aggression.
3. We welcome the approval by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board of a 15.6
billion US dollar program for Ukraine. The significant budget and economic support that has
been committed by G7 members and international partners, together with the IMF program, is
expected to address Ukraine’s most urgent financing needs and underpin a structural reform
agenda for Ukraine. We look forward to the swift implementation of these reforms supported
by the IMF program, which will promote macroeconomic and financial stabilization, contribute
to longer-term economic sustainability, and help to catalyze further financial support from other
countries and institutions as well as the private sector.
4. We reiterate our strong commitment to imposing sanctions and other economic measures
against Russia in response to its illegal, unjustifiable and unprovoked war. We are vigorously
working to prevent and respond to evasion and circumvention of our sanctions and other
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economic measures in various fora, collectively as well as nationally. We will also continue to
monitor the effectiveness of our sanctions, take further actions as needed, and strengthen their
enforcement.
5. Amid the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war of aggression against
Ukraine, economic resilience has been brought into sharper focus. The flow of cross-border
economic activities, including global supply chains, is increasingly viewed through the lens of
achieving both economic efficiency and resilience. In this endeavor, we will stand firm to protect
our shared values, while preserving economic efficiency by upholding the free, fair and rulesbased multilateral system and international cooperation. Our efforts to enhance economic
resilience should also help accelerate social and economic transformation in our economies and
globally by driving progress to achieve deep emission cuts and reach net zero greenhouse gas
emissions by 2050 at the latest and by harnessing the benefits of digitalization.
6. Enhancing supply chain resilience will help us maintain macroeconomic stability and make
economies more sustainable globally. For instance, diversifying the highly concentrated supply
chains of important products for clean energy can contribute to safeguarding energy security,
as well as support global efforts to keep a global warming limit of 1.5 degrees within reach, while
creating new opportunities for value creation in the global economy. We therefore commit to
strengthening collaboration among G7 members and partners through the effective use of our
respective public finance tools, based on the “High-level Policy Guidance for Public Finance
Tools to Build Resilient Supply Chains in the Era of Decarbonization” (Annex). An integral part
of this guidance is to support low- and middle-income countries to play bigger roles in supply
chains and enhance their value addition. To turn the guidance into specific actions, we will
explore the development of a mutually beneficial partnership with low- and middle-income
countries, in collaboration with Multilateral Development Banks and relevant international
organizations.
7. We are fully committed to stepping up our efforts to support low- and middle-income
countries, which are disproportionately affected by Russia’s war of aggression and wider global
challenges. In this spirit, we will closely work with G20 members, international partners and
international organizations to advance the work on MDBs evolution; promote voluntary SDR
channeling; secure resources for PRGT and RST; address debt vulnerabilities; strengthen the
global health architecture; and tackle climate change.
8. We look forward to further deepening our discussions on these issues at Niigata in May.
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Annex:
High-level Policy Guidance for Public Finance Tools to
Build Resilient Supply Chains in the Era of Decarbonization
Enhancing supply chain resilience while preserving economic efficiency is becoming an issue of
paramount importance to ensure economic security, maintain macroeconomic stability, and make
the global economy more sustainable. Against this background, the high degree of concentration
within the supply chains of essential products and technologies for clean energy is a cause of
concern. Diversifying these supply chains can contribute to safeguarding energy security and
macroeconomic stability, as well as support global efforts to keep a global warming limit of 1.5
degrees within reach, while creating new opportunities for value creation in the global economy.
Recognizing the need to build resilient and sustainable supply chains as well as enhance
economic efficiency in the long run through diversification, we commit to strengthening collaboration
among G7 members and potential partners, in particular low- and middle-income countries, through
the effective use of public finance tools such as tax incentives, subsidies, guarantees and public loan
and investment, underpinned by the following High-level Policy Guidance. This guidance will inform
policy deliberations in building resilient and sustainable supply chains of clean energy products and
beyond, as we move forward to a decarbonized and sustainable economy.
1. Providing a fair, productive, and enabling business environment: We empower the private
sector to diversify their supply chains with transparent, efficient, and predictable use of public
finance tools, while catalyzing private resources and upholding the rules-based open global
economic system.
2. Enhancing environmental protection and reducing greenhouse gas emissions along
supply chains: To ensure that building supply chains are in line with global efforts to achieve
net zero and a sustainable economy, we encourage responsible and sustainable business
activities across supply chains that protect the environment, reduce greenhouse gas emissions,
and promote recycling and reusing.
3. Building skilled workforce, quality and decent jobs, and good governance: Recognizing
that investing in human capital, creating quality and decent jobs, and ensuring good governance
are foundations for building resilient supply chains and ensuring a just transition, we support
education, training, and skill-development, as well as ensure a safe, inclusive and ethical work
setting, underpinned by good governance and compliance with human rights.
4. Encouraging joint Research and Development (R&D): Bearing in mind that creating new
products and technologies could broaden options throughout supply chains, thereby enhancing
their resilience, we promote joint R&D among G7 members and interested parties.
5. Supporting low- and middle-income countries: We commit to jointly empowering low- and
middle-income countries to play bigger roles in supply chains through mutually beneficial
cooperation by combining finance, knowledge, and partnership, which will help contribute to
sustainable development and enhance supply chain resilience globally.