The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the economic growth rate of the Macau Special Administrative Region (SAR) will reach 58.9% in 2023, as announced by the Asian Games Brief, and based on this, the region's GDP recovery rate will reach 86% of pre-pandemic levels by 2024. 바다이야기
Game exports as a key growth factor:
The IMF also updated its "forecast" indicating that the SAR economy is likely to grow 20.6% in 2024, given Macau's 26.8% GDP decline in 2022 and recent economic developments following the reopening of facilities such as casino resorts as of January 8, 2023.
The report observed that the region's GDP lost 60% of its value in 2019-2022 and fell from $54 billion in 2019 to $22.1 billion in 2022, indicating that the pandemic and related closures had a major impact on the region's economy.
Estimated reduction in unemployment:
Sources also forecast SAR unemployment to fall to 2.7% in 2023, with data from Macau's Bureau of Statistics and Census already falling to 3.3% from 3.4% in the first quarter of this year, the lowest rate since the first quarter of 2022.
COVID-related regulations reduced tourists by 26% in 2022, reportedly to have had a major impact on the local economy since 1999, but the region opened in January this year and the arrival rate in the first quarter of 2023 rebounded to pre-pandemic levels when 39.4 million tourists visited SAR in 2019.
However, the IMF predicts 8.5% growth of Macau's GDP in 2025 in consideration of current economic trends to predict overall growth and unemployment in the future, and China expects 5.2% growth this year to meet the 5% growth target set by Chinese authorities.
Increased arrivals drive growth:
Some forecasters also expected a strong recovery from increased city arrivals. Last month, rating agency Fitch reportedly predicted that gaming revenue would return to nearly half of 2019 levels. "Removing pandemic control measures, resuming mainland package tours, labor shortages and easing supply-side capacity restrictions will substantially increase the number of visits in 2023," Fitch was quoted as saying.
Other industry experts also expect a deepening recovery in the coming months, based on 5 million tourists in the first quarter, with Macau's government tourism agency using the same figures to forecast total game revenue to reach 20 million by the end of the year.