Polish -Russian cooperation problems and climate change -version October 2021
Bogdan Góralski
Library of the History Faculty of the University of Warsaw
Causes for the partitions of Poland
After a period of high prices for grain in Western Europe in the 15th and 16th centuries, when Polish nobility and peasants with burghers recorded a period of development and prosperity, came a crisis of low prices and a decrease in the volume of exports of Polish grain and the other products. This was due to optimum rainfall for growing cereals in the area west of the Elbe, which caused food self-sufficiency in Western Europe. At the same time, in Poland in the Vistula basin, minimal rainfall was noted in the period 1700-1780, which probably caused worse harvest and difficulties in transporting grain with the use of Polish rivers. Shrinking export markets and lowering prices for grain began in Poland the processes of concentration of agricultural property, which led to the collapse of small noble and peasant farms, and to the development of magnate fortunes. The concentration of agricultural property occurs during a long-lasting fall in the prices of agricultural products, and the deconcentration during price increases.
The political role of impoverished Polish nobility has decreased, and the influence of magnates increased sky-high. Along with the impoverishment of the nobility, nobility democracy was subject to decline and decline, which increased the power of magnates. Simultaneously with the depopulation of the villages, a typical phenomenon during the concentration of agricultural ownership, the cities to which the impoverished rural population protected itself and the urban proletariat grew and appeared the tenents of farm tenants on magnates' estates. In the 17th and 18th centuries, Poland and the Polish village became impoverished and depopulated, Polish culture reduced flights, and the neighboring powers grew stronger, bribing with the bribes and privileges of Polish magnates and blocking reforms in Poland, which led to partitions. It is likely that this state was caused by regional climate changes unfavorable for Poland in Western, Central, and Eastern Europe.
As a result of the prolonged economic downturn of 1655-1760 resulting from the negative climatic conditions of the Little Ice Age summit and wars, Poland became depopulated, which made it impossible to regain economic strength in the conditions of the improving economic situation at the end of the 18th century associated with a significant rise in food prices in Europe. This was reflected in the regulations of the 3rd May Constitution calling on foreigners to settle in the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The internal crisis of the state and noble democracy caused by the lack of exports and labor in Poland continued. The magnate anarchy and their properties grew in Poland, which was the result of economic processes taking place in the 17th and 18th centuries. Populations of well-organized hostile absolute monarchies of Prussia and Russia grew. Cereal prices in Europe were rising slowly. This caused an imbalance of forces to the detriment of Poland, the demand of the invaders for new lands, and subsequent partitions of Poland. In 1788-1790 Poland spent PLN 30 million on the army, Russia 250, Austria 180, Prussia PLN 70 million.
Visible in the drawing (Fig. 14 and 15) in the book Man and climate (link: http://www.depot.ceon.pl/handle/123456789/4855), changes in the amount of precipitation show that in Russia there was a long decline in cereal production in the years 1850-1870 resulting from a huge drought. Droughts lasted in Russia probably the entire eighteenth century. It is possible that the drought began in 1750, which may have forced the tsarist authorities to invade depopulated Poland and partitions.
Investigating the history of the amount of rainfall in Europe and Asia will determine whether regional climate change and long-term reduction of atmospheric precipitation forced the tsarist authorities to expand on the west, into Poland, to neighboring lands for ensuring purposes to maintain the army and increase tsarist income. It would also allow deciding whether it was the prolonged lack of rainfall that weakened Polish agriculture, and thus the economy and the Polish State?
Confirmation of the above concept is brought by the work analyzing atmospheric precipitation in the Aral Sea basin. Changes in the salinity of the Aral Sea waters read from its bottom sediments indicate significant changes in sea level, which depended on the amount of precipitation in the south of Asian Russia. This work indicates that in the years 1600-1750 in the catchment areas of rivers supplying the Aral Sea, precipitation was much more abundant (See Fig 5 in the paper: Variability in precipitation, temperature and river runoff in W Central Asia during the past ~ 2000 yrs, Hedi Oberhänsli, Kateřina Novotná, Anna Píšková, Sabine Chabrillat, Danis K. Nourgaliev, Abilgazy K. Kurbaniyazov, Tomáš Matys Grygar) than in 1750-1795, which ensured food supply and allowed population growth. The abundance of food caused an increase in the Asian (and probably also European) population of male newborn babies, which resulted in an increase in the size of the army, which grew for 150 years along with the increase in the Russian population. I describe the mechanism of growth of the male population in the text titled Sex ratio - masculinization rate and social mood in Poland, link: http://www.eioba.pl/a/5094/sex-ratio-wspolczynnik-maskulinalizacji-a-spoleczne-nastroje-w Poland.
From 1750 to 1880, the amount of precipitation in the Aral Sea basin was steadily decreasing (this suggests no precipitation in the area east of the Elbe), which worsened the conditions of life of the population living in Russia and the tsarist authorities, in order to avoid internal unrest caused by starvation of the subjects (vide Pugaczow uprise 1773-1775, Koliyivshchyna- Ukrainian peasants uprise 1768), they used a large number of troops during the partition of Poland and territorial expansion to the southern regions of Central Asia. The decision on territorial expansion was probably dictated by the difficult internal situation in the southwest part of the tsarist Imperium caused by the lack of food and the growing level of aggression of the people. Territorial expansion caused a discharge of social sentiment and financial benefits for tsarism.
The excerpts below are a part of interesting work on ITCZ shifts entitled Tropical rainfall over the last two millennia: evidence for a low[1]latitude hydrologic seesaw Franziska A. Lechleitner1,2, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach3, Kira Rehfeld4, Harriet E. Ridley2, YemaneAsmerom5, Keith M. Prufer6, Norbert Marwan7, BedarthaGoswami7,8, Douglas J. Kennett9, Valorie V.Aquino6, Victor Polyak5, Gerald H. Haug1,10, Timothy I. Eglinton1 & James U. L. Baldin.
"The presence of a low- to mid-latitude interhemispheric hydrologic seesaw is apparent over orbital and glacial-interglacial timescales, but its existence over the most recent past remains unclear. Here we investigate, based on climate proxy reconstructions from both hemispheres, the inter-hemispherical phasing of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the low- to mid-latitude teleconnections in the Northern Hemisphere over the past 2000 years. A clear feature is a persistent southward shift of the ITCZ during the Little Ice Age until the beginning of the 19th Century. Strong covariation between our new composite ITCZ-stack and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) records reveals a tight coupling between these two synoptic weather and climate phenomena over decadal-to-centennial timescales.
This relationship becomes most apparent when comparing two precisely dated, high-resolution paleorainfall records from Belize and Scotland, indicating that the low- to mid-latitude teleconnection was also active over annual-decadal timescales. It is likely a combination of external forcing, i.e., solar and volcanic, and internal feedbacks, that drives the synchronous ITCZ and NAO shifts via energy flux perturbations in the tropics".
„Monsoonal systems, like the ASM, the SASM, the Australian-Indonesian Summer Monsoon (AISM), the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), and the West African Monsoon (WAM) are affected by the hemispheric migration of the ITCZ as a major moisture flux conduit and by hemispheric temperature, because land-sea temperature contrasts drive the monsoonal systems17,25. Although monsoonal variations might not necessarily be equivalent to ITCZ shifts, monsoons can be linked to ITCZ variations17,26–28”.
In my opinion (see my works on GOOGLE BOOKS), constant shifts of the ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone and areas affected by precipitation and droughts are caused by rapid movements of Earth’s coating due to gravitational forces which come from Solar System. According to the above work during LIA ITCZ moved to the South what means that Earth's coating shifted in that time in the opposite direction that means to the North. That is why rainfall-vegetation zones of the atmosphere shifted that way that the south of Tsarist Russia experienced severe drought in the years 1720-1791.
The lack of sufficient precipitation in the areas east of the Elbe, which decreased steadily eastwards to Central Asia, was caused by the regional climate inversion causing cooling and precipitation in Western Europe and their absence east of the Elbe (see chapter V.4.48). This caused the Tsarist's decision to attack to the west, on Poland with large surpluses of food needed to feed the excessive number of Russian subjects during the climate crisis. The below chart of changes in the growth of Russian recruits recruited relative to their year of birth confirms the above reasoning.
Fig. 1 Changes of the height of candidates for the Russian army in the period 1700-1915.
The chart was prepared by Bogdan Góralski based on the data from tables 4.1.5.1 and 8.5 contained in the book by Boris Mironov (2014), The standard of living and Revolutions in Russia, 1700-1917, Routledge, London-New York.
From 1750 to 1795 was the decrease of heights of conscripts resulted from the increasing malnutrition of the Russian population. Probably because of this malnutrition the social aggression of the Russians increased, which caused the Tsarist's decision to attack Poland rich in food and other wealth. Since 1800, the height of the conscripts has been growing steadily, indicating the abundance of food in the Russian Empire, resulting from rising rainfall. The masculinization rate of the Russian population increased until the Russian Revolution because good nutrition of the population favors the birth of boys. As a result, the Russian population, in which young men predominated, became more and more aggressive (testosterone in men), which contributed to the increase of revolutionary moods in Russian society, whose population grew rapidly until the revolution. World War I and the activities of revolutionaries, including the Bolsheviks, caused the outbreak of the revolution and the civil war.
Stalin's rule destroyed the best Russian farmers, which up to today is provoking of food shortage in Russia. This causes the feminization of the Russian population, which today has the lowest masculinization rate in the world indicating malnutrition and the predominance of women in the Russian population - see link (.https: //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_sex_ratio). It follows that food is a strategic commodity for Russia, ensuring internal peace. The climate change coming in the colder years of 2019-2040 will reduce rainfall in Russia, which may cause internal anxiety and Russia's aggressive behavior towards its neighbors. To calm the Russian power, you need to provide him with food but for that Poland is not ready. Every year, Russia imports food worth about USD 50 billion, and this is probably not enough to meet the nutritional needs of Russians. In the face of the destruction of the farmers' layer, Russian agriculture is mechanized and only produces food whose cultivation is mechanized. During the Soviet occupation of Poland, Russia imported huge quantities of vegetables from Poland, but this import was excessive and impoverished the Polish market in food. Stalin murdered part of the Polish pre-war intelligentsia (the murder in Katyn and post-war terror), including Polish landowners. It was the preparation of the field for governments Commie-Jew. The pre-war Polish elite would not agree to Poland's unprofitable food exports to Russia, which is probably why they were destroyed by Stalin. According to the Central Statistical Office, food production of the People's Republic of Poland was at most equal to pre-war agricultural production and was not sufficient to ensure adequate export volume to Russia. Private agriculture was destroyed and inefficient state-owned farms and cooperatives were subsidized. The Soviet Union cut the branch it was sitting on, because when the climate crisis of the 70-80s came. Of the twentieth century and agricultural production dropped enormously, food was not enough for Poles and Russians, and the Solidarity revolution began in Poland, which caused the collapse of the communist block.
Nowadays, Poland exports food mainly to the EU and it is a profitable export. However, recovery of the export of Polish food to the Russian market is currently impossible due to insufficient Polish agricultural production. Increasing food exports to Russia would increase the prices of agricultural products in the Polish market. Only a return to the feudal system and making it humanitarian will contribute to the intensive use of Poland's agricultural potential and increase the production of Polish food. This can be achieved only through the rehabilitation of the Polish nobility and landowners, whom the land Stalin and the Jewish Communists took in the so-called land reform. So we see the historical paradox because it is in the interest of modern Russian elites to restore the order of pre-war and even 16th-century Poland. The impending climate crisis will reduce Russia's agricultural production and internal unrest will begin. The way out is Russia's action to support the reforms of the Polish socio-economic system that can efficiently meet Russian needs. Russia has its numerous and influential agents in Poland, which torpedo many positive Polish initiatives. This Russian agency should work to bring the interests of Poland and Russia closer together. Russia attacked Poland three times because of a lack of food resulting mainly from adverse climate change:
during the partitions in 1772-1795,
in 1920
in 1939.
As writes Nicholas.V. Riasanovsky, Mark D. Steinberg in the book History of Russia, Krakow 2009, Publisher of the Jagiellonian University, in the chapter Crisis in Part VI entitled Soviet Russia quote:
"The drought that took place in 1920 and 1921, as well as the terrible famine (1921) added the last macabre chapter of the catastrophe. After the" bloodless "October Revolution, at first, there were years of epidemic, famine, fighting, and executions combined with general economic and social collapse, which took nearly 20 million victims. "
This quote is direct proof that the climate crisis of lack of rainfall caused a decision to attack the Polish lands, which in those years experienced a huge harvest. In view of the huge fall in the value of the ruble and the destruction of the economy, food imports from Poland were impossible at the time because of the lack of adequate capital in Russia. The future world and climate situation may cause Russia's actions towards the next aggression to the west, including Poland. Another partition of Poland is possible. A Germany-Russia agreement is likely. Will we prevent this situation? The Russian attack is approaching together with the coming minimum solar magnetic activity.
Nowadays, global food prices have been decreasing since 1920, and processes of depopulation and concentration of industrial and agricultural property are underway in Poland, which causes a growing economic and political crisis in Poland. Actions are needed to prevent population decline and concentration of ownership in industry and agriculture because these activities will increase Polish agro-industrial production and exports and with them the strength and importance of Poland. I described these activities in my books and articles available on the Internet. I invite you to read them.
Bogdan Jacek Góralski
Warsaw, January 15-16, 2016 at 19:35 modified October 23,2021 at 5:24 am