With just five games to play now in the league stage of the IPL 2022, there are still 32 possible combinations of results left.
The chances of individual teams making the playoffs. As it is, one team is certain to top the group stage, while two are definitely out of the playoffs, leaving seven teams with a chance to reserve the remaining three spots.
Here’s how the teams stand as of Thursday morning:
MI and CSK are out of the running for playoff spots, GT is guaranteed to finish first.
two) SRH’s chances of finishing in the top four on points have improved to 12.5% after Tuesday’s win.
They can do it by winning their last game and if RCB loses their last game against GT. If that happens, SRH will finish with 14 points and be fourth with two other (DC, RCB) or three (DC, RCB and KKR) teams depending on who wins the KKR-LSG game.
KKR’s chances of reaching the top four on points are also 12.5%. To do so, they need to win their last game against LSG and then hope that GT beats RCB and MI beats DC.
That would leave them on 14 points tied with three others (DC, RCB and SRH or PBKS)
PBKS’s chances of reaching the top four on points are the same at 12.5%. To get there, they need to beat SRH and hope MI beats DC and GT beats RCB.
In that scenario, they would be at 14 points with two (DC, RCB) or three others (DC, RCB and KKR) depending on who wins the KKR-LSG game.
DC’s chances of making the top four in points are still 75%. His best case scenario would be to win his last game against MI and hope that LSG and RR lose their games against KKR and CSK respectively.
That would put them tied for second on 16 points with LSG and RR and secure qualification. Even if they lose their last game to MI, they can still finish fourth if GT beats RCB and MI beats DC.
They will then be tied for fourth place with two (RCB and SRH or PK) or three (RCB, KKR and SRH or PK) other
RCB’s chances of reaching one of the top four places also remain at 75%. Like DC, their best case scenario is to win their last game against GT and hope that LSG and RR lose to KKR and CSK respectively.
That would leave them with 16 points, tied with two (LSG, RR) or three (LSG, RR and DC) teams depending on who wins the DC-MI game. Even if they lose their last game, they could finish fourth with two teams (DC and vSRH or PK) or three (DC, KKR and SRH or PBKS).
RR will surely finish second or third in the points table. Their best case scenario will be to win against CSK and hope that KKR win against LSG. That would leave them in second place with 18 points.
But even if they lose to CSK, they can qualify as solo third (if KKR beats LSG, MI beats DC and GT beats RCB) or tied for third with either RCB or DC or both. If it’s a three-way tie, it would come down to net run rates
LSG are similarly placed. They are guaranteed joint second or third place. They can get the only second place if they win their last game against KKR and CSK beat RR. Even if they lose their last game, as RR, they can still qualify through a tied third place and net run rate.
How we calculate these probabilities:
We analyze the 32 possible combinations of results with six games remaining. We assume that for any given match, the chances of either side winning are equal. We then look at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four spots by points.
That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 32 possible combinations of results, RCB finishes first to fourth in points in 24 combinations.
That translates to a 75% chance. We do not take into account net execution rates or “no results” because it is impossible to predict them in advance.