Another week of fixtures down and the Premier League table continues to be tightly poised. Manchester City remain unstoppable after they eased to a 3-0 victory against relegation-battling Fulham and a tight victory for Manchester United against West Ham has edged them closer to securing a top-four position.
The race for European spots is likely to go down to the wire, with many of the competing teams still due to play each other. Look out for “six-pointers”, and “huge clashes” in the coming weeks, with Tottenham vs Manchester United (April 11) and Leicester vs Chelsea (May 15) just a couple of the fixtures to whet the appetite.
A look at the league table — with a flavour of the top-half form — highlights that Chelsea are certainly profiting from a manager bounce, remaining unbeaten since Thomas Tuchel’s arrival. Meanwhile, Spurs’ recent good form took a hit with a loss to Arsenal, as they have struggled in recent weeks to beat the teams closest to them in the table.
In light of this change from the weekend’s fixtures, let’s return to the Stats Perform’s predicted final league table, that we introduced in our previous permutations article.
This predicted table is established by calculating a figure for the attacking and defensive strength of each team, based on their results in previous seasons, with more weighting given to more recent results.
From those weights, a match between any two sides can be simulated to see who wins, with multiple simulations completed for the remaining fixtures for each team. What the grid below displays is the average of the results of each of these 100,000 simulations.
Unfortunately, these predictions do not account for player injuries, suspensions, form or any other factors that might impact things in the coming weeks. However, it remains a useful, non-biased model to predict how things might play out in the future.
Looking at the predicted formation of the top four places, Manchester City’s performances would need to fall off a cliff to stop them from winning the league title. Manchester United remain nailed-on for the top four, with nearly a 97 per cent chance of finishing above fifth, and a 71 per cent chance of finishing second. Leicester and Chelsea are still expected to finish third and fourth respectively, with Stats Perform’s model giving Brendan Rodgers’ side the edge with 69 points to Chelsea’s 67 points.
Similarly, we can revisit each teams’ underlying numbers to identify what patterns might have developed as we near the end of the season.
By exploring the number of goals that teams should have scored based on the quality of chances they had (expected goals or xG) compared with their actual goals scored, we can assess whether teams are performing above or below expectation.
Of the teams in the top half, we can see that it is Everton who create the fewest chances per game. Matched with their xG conceded, it would be of little surprise to see Ancelotti’s men regress a little in the final weeks of the season.
Meanwhile, Chelsea’s defence is looking particularly strong, and they are rarely giving up high-quality chances per game. Check out their expected goals against (xG against) in the table below; only Manchester City have conceded lower-quality chances per game than Chelsea this season. Tuchel has established consistency at the back, and while they may not always be free-scoring at the other end, their propensity to not concede gives them a strong foundation in each game.
Once again, The Athletic provides an updated data dive into all teams in the top half — all of whom are arguably fighting for those European spots.
Manchester United
Current position: 2nd
Predicted position: 2nd
As discussed above, United have all but secured Champions League football for next year. While Sunday’s marginal win over West Ham was thanks to an own goal by Craig Dawson, United are still creating good chances — they are just not consistently finishing them. Marcus Rashford’s gilt-edged headed chance was the best example from the weekend, but fortunately didn’t cost United come the final whistle.
They also remain defensively solid. While their “xG against” might suggest they should have shipped a couple more goals recently, the opposition have only found the net twice in United’s past six league games. Four consecutive clean sheets certainly helps build confidence among the back line. Even if United do drop a few points between now and the end of the season, it looks like second is the best position they can compete for. The Stats Perform model keeps them as favourites to do so.
Remaining fixtures
April 4 – Brighton (H), April 11 – Tottenham (A), April 17 – Burnley (H), April 24 – Leeds (A), May 1 – Liverpool (H), May 8 – Aston Villa (A), May 11 – Leicester (H), May 15 – Fulham (H), May 23 – Wolves (A)
Bookmakers’ odds of making top four 1/16
Leicester City
Current position: 3rd
Predicted position: 3rd
Despite their recent injury struggles, Leicester produced an accomplished five-star performance against Sheffield United. A hat-trick for Kelechi Iheanacho is the rightful headline from the game, but the defensive solidity is something Rodgers will also be pleased with.
Saturday’s victory was the first time that the defensive trio of Wesley Fofana, Jonny Evans and Caglar Soyuncu have all started together in a Leicester shirt. An “xG against” of just 0.10 across the whole game was their best defensive performance of the season. Maintaining that solidity will stand them in good stead for the remaining games of the season. The Stats Perform model maintains that a third-place finish looks most likely.
Remaining fixtures
April 3 – Manchester City (H), April 11 – West Ham (A), April 17 – West Brom (H), April 24 – Crystal Palace (H), May 1 – Southampton (A), May 8 – Newcastle (H), May 11 – Manchester United (A), May 15 – Chelsea (A), May 23 – Tottenham (H)
Odds of getting into top four 2/5
Chelsea
Current position: 4th
Predicted position: 4th
Tuchel will be delighted with Chelsea’s clean sheet record in recent games, and they added another to the list against Leeds on Saturday. Elland Road has not been an easy place to go to this season, but Chelsea will have come away disappointed that they didn’t profit from some clear-cut chances they created.
Much like Frank Lampard, you can see that Tuchel is yet to establish his “best XI”, particularly which combination is most potent at the top end of the field. Games under the German are a little more attritional with chances at both ends, but they are having success with it. Chelsea’s last four games look the most tricky of their remaining fixtures, but the model still predicts they will end the season in the Champions League places.
Remaining fixtures
April 3 – West Brom (H), April 10 – Crystal Palace (A), April 17 – Brighton (H), April 24 – West Ham (A), May 1 – Fulham (H), May 8 – Manchester City (A), May 12 – Arsenal (H), May 15 – Leicester (H), May 23 – Aston Villa (A)
Odds of getting into top four 2/5
West Ham
Current position: 5th
Predicted position: 7th
You could put West Ham’s recent defeat by Manchester United down as a wobble, in terms of their recent form. Looking at the balance of play, United were rightfully victorious, generating chances worthy of 1.5 xG to West Ham’s 0.6.
Aside from their recent 2-1 victory against Spurs, West Ham haven’t convinced too much against the sides around them, with recent losses to Manchester City and Liverpool to add to their slip-up at Old Trafford.
Moyes’s men do have some tough games to come against Arsenal, Chelsea and Leicester, which will be key in deciding their overall position. The model predicts a seventh-place finish come the end of the campaign, which is still a very respectable outcome for a club that finished 16th last season.
Remaining fixtures
March 21 – Arsenal (H), April 5 – Wolves (A), April 11 – Leicester (H), April 17 – Newcastle (A), April 24 – Chelsea (H), May 1 – Burnley (A), May 8 – Everton (H), May 11 – Brighton (A), May 15 – West Brom (A), May 23 – Southampton (H)
Odds of getting into top four 9/2
Liverpool
Current position: 6th
Predicted position: 5th
While it seems crazy to say, even sixth seems like something of a false position for Liverpool currently, as they have played a game more than the teams below them. All they can do until the end of the season is keep winning and see what happens elsewhere, and they did it the gritty, determined way against Wolves on Monday.
Jurgen Klopp will be grateful that he can call upon a fresh, unwounded Diogo Jota to be the difference-maker at the top end of the field. Meanwhile, there are signs of a blossoming (or even acceptable) partnership at the back between Nat Phillips and Ozan Kabak — at least in the short term.
Liverpool are afforded a rest before their next fixture to Arsenal on April 4, alongside a favourable run-in until the end of the season. However, the model predicts it is too little too late to finish in the top four. Barring a turn of events, a fifth-placed position might be the best that Liverpool fans could hope for. A Champions League win would also see Klopp’s men qualify for the prestigious competition next season if they cannot finish inside the top four.
Remaining fixtures
April 4 – Arsenal (A), April 10 – Aston Villa (H), April 17 – Leeds (A), April 24 – Newcastle (H), May 1 – Manchester United (A), May 8 – Southampton (H), May 11 – West Brom (A), May 15 – Burnley (A), May 23 – Crystal Palace (H).
Odds of getting into top four 21/10
Everton
Current position: 7th
Predicted position: 9th
The goals that Everton conceded against Burnley at the weekend were both actually low-quality chances — and high-quality finishing from Sean Dyche’s side. Many goalkeepers would have struggled to have saved Dwight McNeil’s “goal of the season” contender.
Nevertheless, it has felt as though Everton have been in a false position for quite a while, and a dip was inevitable. Their “xG for” of 1.2 per game is actually the 12th-best in the league, and their “xG against” of 1.3 per game is 14th-best in the league.
Taken together, it would be unfair to predict a top-four finish for Everton based on their underlying numbers. The Stats Perform model actually places them ninth come the end of the season — whether that is accurate remains to be seen.
Remaining fixtures
April 5 – Crystal Palace (H), April 12 – Brighton (A), April 17 – Tottenham (H), April 24 – Arsenal (A), May 1 – Aston Villa (H), May 8 – West Ham (A), May 11 – Sheffield United (H), May 15 – Wolves (H), May 23 – Manchester City (A), TBC – Aston Villa (A)
Odds of getting into top four 22/1
Tottenham Hotspur
Current position: 8th
Predicted position: 6th
Spurs’ loss at the weekend was made all the worse by the fact it was against their north London rivals. Their underlying performances have been a little patchy in terms of expected goals for and against, which is indicative of their up and down season so far.
The weakness on their right-hand side might be cause for concern if they don’t address that issue quickly, as a lot of the chances they conceded were a carbon copy of each other. On the positive side, Spurs fans will be glad to hear that Son Heung-min’s injury is not as bad as first feared.
If they can win back-to-back in their next two games against Aston Villa and Newcastle, it would certainly lighten the mood before they host Manchester United on April 11. The model places them in sixth place come May, which would represent a decent finish in what has been an up and down season for Mourinho’s men. If Mourinho can win his third Europa League then they will have a route to next season’s Champions League without needing a top-four league finish.
Remaining fixtures
March 21 – Aston Villa (A), April 4 – Newcastle (A), April 11 – Manchester United (H), April 17 – Everton (A), May 1 – Sheffield United (H), May 8 – Leeds (A), May 12 – Wolves (H), May 15 – Aston Villa (H), May 23 – Leicester (A), TBC – Southampton (H).
Odds of getting into top four 6/1
Aston Villa
Current position: 9th
Predicted position: 10th
You could argue that there is no team in the Premier League who is more reliant on one player than Aston Villa are with Jack Grealish. As Grealish continues his recovery from a lower leg injury, Villa are winless in their last three games and only scored three goals in the last six games.
Their “xG for” is creeping down and their “xG against” is creeping up in recent weeks, which Dean Smith will be acutely aware of. There’s no doubt that Villa have had a fantastic season so far, but a final push for a European spot looks likely to be a step too far. The model puts them to finish 10th overall.
Remaining fixtures
March 21 – Tottenham (H), April 3 – Fulham (H), April 10 – Liverpool (A), April 17 – Manchester City (H), April 24 – West Brom (H), May 1 – Everton (A), May 8 – Manchester United (H), May 11 – Crystal Palace (A), May 15 – Tottenham (A), May 23 – Chelsea (H), TBC – Everton (H)
Odds of getting into top four 66/1
Arsenal
Current position: 10th
Predicted position: 8th
Arsenal were deserving winners on Sunday, generating chances worthy of 1.8 xG to Spurs’ 0.4. Furthermore, their improved performances in recent weeks have arguably been deserving of more positive results.
New loanee Martin Odegaard has breathed a new energy into Arsenal on and off the ball, and it remains to be seen whether the Norwegian international will make the permanent move to the Emirates.
Arteta has shown many the importance of “trust the process”, and there is every reason to believe that Arsenal will finish strongly with plenty of winnable games in the final weeks of the season. The model predicts them to have an eighth-place finish, which is respectable considering their league position earlier this year. Like Tottenham, a Europa League win would see them qualify for next season’s Champions League.
Remaining fixtures
March 21 – West Ham United (A), April 4 – Liverpool (H), April 11 – Sheffield United (A), April 17 – Fulham (H), April 24 – Everton (H), May 1 – Newcastle (A), May 8 – West Brom (H), May 12 – Chelsea (A), May 15 – Crystal Palace (A), May 23 – Brighton (H).
Odds of getting into top four 22/1
(Top photo: Visionhaus/Getty Images)
(All odds taken from Betfair at 6pm on Tuesday evening)