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USD/JPY uptrend confirmed with break and strong impulse

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Kazi Tanzib @Kazi_Tanzib · Feb 1, 2021
  • USD/JPY made a strong bullish breakout above the resistance trend line (dotted orange). Therefore, the impulsive bullish price swing is probably a wave 3 pattern.
  • Price action remains in the bullish territory as long as it stays above the 21 ema support zone. A shallow pullback should see a bullish bounce (blue arrow). 
  • A deeper pullback should see the 38.2% Fibonacci level act as support (green arrows). Only a break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level places the uptrend in danger.

This article reviews the potential space for more upside. We also analyze the key chart and Elliott Wave patterns.

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Price Charts and Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY seems to be completing a larger ABC (purple) zigzag within a triangle pattern on the weekly and monthly charts. The current bullish ABC pattern is probably part of wave D (red). 

 

  • The recent low completed wave B (purple) after a divergence pattern appeared (purple).
  • Now price action is developing in a 3 wave pattern again to the upside.
  • This is probably waving 3 (grey) of wave 3 (pink).

 

Price action remains in the bullish territory as long as it stays above the 21 ema support zone. A shallow pullback should see a bullish bounce (blue arrow). Here are some other variations:

 

  • An unexpected break below it puts the uptrend on pause (yellow circle). 
  • A deep retracement invalidates it (red circle).
  • An immediate bullish breakout could take place, too (green arrow).

 

On the 1 hour chart, price action seems to be in wave 4 (light blue) to a lower degree. The price respected the 23.6% Fibonacci level. This means that an immediate bullish continuation (blue arrow) is possible.

 

A deeper pullback should see the 38.2% Fibonacci level act as support (green arrows). Only a break below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level places the uptrend in danger.

 

The main targets for upside are at 105, 105.50, 106, and 107.50.

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