bismillah . The recent events in Syria have taken a downward turn for the worst and the opposition has no one To blame except themselves. Disunity, fighting over the few areas liberated, bending over backwards to please foreign nations, accepting the role of becoming proxies instead of having an independent voice, etc are some of the reasons which have led to this position. On the other hand Russia has played this one smart and has outmaneuvered their opponents inside Syria as well as in the international stage.
The Russian strategy is working and the opposition are to blame above all else. The Russian strategy of enforcing "cessation of hostility zones" is very VERY clear in its motives and inevitable outcome. Russia is attempting to create these "ceasefire zones" with regional and international backing to enable the regime to recapture all of eastern Syria from IS. When this task is done, the regime (with full Russian and probable western aide) will try to recapture Idlib under the guise of fighting "AQ" in idlib which doesn't exist. The remaining pockets of resistance whether in Ghoutta, Homs, Dara, etc will then be offered a humiliating "political solution" which will include Asad remaining - and if they refuse - the regime (w/Russian backing and western negligence) will finish off these few remaining areas. This is the plan, and EVERYONE sees it coming. Now what can be done to avert this? Is there any way out of this seemingly "inevitable" finale?
Yes. But with this opposition as it stands it seems very unlikely. This clear plot - of allowing the regime to retake east Syria then enabling a global alliance to fight HTS- had a huge impact on the latest HTS/Ahrar dilemma. Let me put it very clear - the oppositions only real hope is IDLIB all other areas mean very little if idlib falls. And let me put it even clearer, if something didn't change and real fast in Idlib and the opposition remains divided IDLIB WILL FALL. Frankly put no ONE group can take the fight to the regime alone. We saw this clearly in the HTS led offensive in reef Hama which faltered near Qomhana at the gates of Hama city. In Idlib, Reef Hama, and Reef South Aleppo there are over 40,000 fighters - they can take the fight to the regime and change the current dynamics - but unfortunately the opposition has instead chosen division and has become content with the current state as "proxies" - which will lead to their demise.
Whether you agree or disagree with the recent HTS positioning after the infighting between them and Ahrar, one thing is for certain. The "international community" is all to willing to hand Syria to the regime on a silver platter under the guise of fighting "AQ". This poses a problem of its own and HTS has to be wise enough to make the correct decision.
HTS has to remove these justifications no matter how unjust and false they may be. Their are several ways this can be done and recent leaks from HTS figures have revealed that HTS is in fact undergoing a new project in northern Syria designed specifically for this task.
A) HTS has to hand over civil administration to local bodies selected by the noteable figures in the designated locations. In short the affairs of the cities and their administration has to be run by local bodies free from any groups
B) The task of administrating justice and the courts, police, etc has to be tasked to a united justice administration and not the task of any one group
C) All groups must disband into one unified military body led by a unifying figure - some have floated the name of the first FSA leader Riyaad Al As'ad (whom in my opinion is the perfect candidate)
Recent meetings including HTS leader and ex-Ahrar leader Abu Jabber Al Sheikh have hinted that this project is infact underway and HTS media outlet Aba news covering the local Idlib civil administration meetings further solidifies that HTS is pushing in this direction.
Recent leaks from Turkish officials including Turkish media outlets have mentioned in detail that turkey made it very clear that in order for turkey to oppose a Mosul like operation targeting Idlib - their are 3 demands as they put it:
1. Civil admin
2. Free police force (as they put it)
3. HTS disbands
These "demands" no matter how unjust HTS may see it are all plausible and this opportunity should now be missed. Now more then ever, all groups in Idlib need to disband and unite in one body. HTS essentially handicapping Ahrar and removing them as the largest group in Idlib makes this scenario far more likely. Keep in mind that the failed merger which would have united most of Idlib under one command failed due to Ahrar rejecting the proposal after they initially accepted the proposal.
The next few months are crucial for the fate of Syria, unless it is played well everything can be lost. And if it is played well - I say this with certainty - everything will change for the better. The regimes biggest ally has been the opposition which has shot itself in the foot and has refused to win! Insha'Allah this will all Change if everything goes to plan.
- Abu Summiyah Khalidi