What Is Really Happening In North Sinai?

 

I have heard many people speaking on Sinai but did not have enough informations as a result, many think that there is no strategy and soldiers have died in vain. So let’s talk about the real situation seriously.

First of all, you have to distinguish 4 areas: Rafah, Sheikh Zweid, al-Arich and Center of Sinai. As 4 independent areas with their own security situation. It means that ‘Wilaya Sinai’ is also divided and is made up of several independent groups scattered in this 4 areas. And in each areas, there are sub-units also independently of each other.

 

 

Secondly, the war in Sinai is mainly based on humain intelligence. It means that without the civilians of al-Arich, Sheikh Zweid and Rafah, the Egyptian Army would never have managed to improve the situation. That is a reason that takfiri elements started to increase assassination operations against civilians in September, even if they had no link with the military. A number, 'Wilaya Sinai' claimed to have executed more than 350 civilians in 2015.

This year, the situation has improved significantly especially with the last +31 days campaign. Therefore, how has the Egyptian military dealt with the takfiri elements over the past months?

Above all, the military were focus to secure the international roads al-Gorah - Sheikh Zeid and al-Gorah - Rafah where checkpoints had been created at the entry of Abu el-Arag, al-Toma, al Mahdya villages and along both axes. It was a way to disrupt their movements, that were already restricted.

 

There was a first step during a large military campaign end of March 2016. It targeted south of Rafah and Sheikh Zweid but especially the triangle al-Gorah, al-Bers and Rafah where the military discovered an important terrorist HQ in al-Bers and destroyed it after hours of clashes. A prison had been also discovered underground where 17 civilians were freed by the Special Forces, several tunnel destroyed too along the border with Gaza between al-Mahdya and al-Bers. Then, they set-up a series of checkpoint inside the village and on the secondary roads to prevent the infiltration of terrorist to the north and paralyze their supply roads.

Since then, the military let the area of al-Toma that became a gathering place for terrorist elements. Around 75% of the airstrikes were carried out in this village and its surroundings without any ground operation. In fact takfiri were trapped west of al-Toma and Abu el-Arag, this area is called the ‘triangle of Dwar Najd’ with building abandoned by the population and an open desert. It’s known by locals that the area is full of mass graves after months of heavy losses.

 

 

In the past months, other terrorists units have tried to break the military positions along the main roads. It failed, they never managed to break and take a checkpoint in this war. At the same time, the military carried out number of operations in al-Balaa area, where terrorists began to gather too. And this after the cleansing of south of Rafah. All of this of course, has been prepared by the military over months. So 2 months ago, we had 2 pockets of terrorists: the area between Sheikh Zweid and Balaa, then the areas of al-Toma.

Beginning of October the Egyptian Army launched a major operation that lasted +30 days. It managed to clean the area of al-Balaa in 15-days, and set up a serie of checkpoint on the international roads Sheikh Zweid Rafah, and al-Balaa to the sea. Remaining terrorists were trapped in the south by the checkpoints, north by sea, west by the city of Sheikh Zweid and East by the checkpoints.

 

 

Then the operations have been extended for 15-days first in al-Toma, and then in al-Bers to reinforce the positions. Another serie of checkpoints have been set up inside al-Toma village and in the desert, to fully secure Sheikh Zweid - al-Gorah axe, disrupt their movements in the triangle of Dwar Najd and the city. Why the city ? because few elements managed to infiltrate south east the city and attack the police station which at the extreme borders of the town. Each time they failed, due to the presence of al-Bawaba checkpoint. (2 VBIED destroyed last month)

After the end of terrorist activity south of Rafah, south west and west of Seikh Zweid: there was only one area: south east of Sheikh Zweid. All remaining terrorists decided to gather in al-Mokatea village. al-Mokatea was also let by the military over the past months, only checkpoints have been set up before to besiege the village. And after 10-day of operations, al-Mokaea has been fully cleaned from terrorists elements. The only medical center and school were occupied by them: many computers, cameras and military equipment have been seized.

What will come next ? After this operation that cleaned a great part of Sheikh Zweid, we cannot discard the threat but it’s a beginning. You will say and how ?
- First, civilians have started to regain their home in number of village south Sheikh Zweid: families of al-Awabda, al-Shahawin, al-Maania and recently al Tarabin.
- Then, building material entered for the first time in Sheikh Zweid and Rafah to start reconstruction.
- International roads will soon be re-opened for the population and local sources reported that water, electricity and internet have not been cut for a while for the first time

The main threat now is in al-Arich, and we can expect a major operation soon. During the operation in Sheikh Zweid, they failed to break 3 times military positions south al-Arich. Terrorists groups in Sheikh Zweid may try to join al-Arich, where the area is not in favor of the troops with many green spaces.

 

 

In conclusion, over the past months, terrorists suffered heavy losses in men and logistics. Their number has fallen considerably entrenched in several pockets that prevent any coordination between them. The Egyptian Army managed to adopt a long-term strategy in a very complicated situation specifically that it was a new type of war in a land abandoned by the government for years. The war is not finished but it’s a great beginning.