THE RUSSIAN PLANE CRASH IS A VICTORY FOR THE ISLAMIC STATE
What we know (and what we think) about the crash of the Russian aircraft in Egypt
(This text was originally written in another language on 1st of November at 13:42 UTC. The authors are just bloggers and analysts that want to share their views and expose some missing points. English is not our first language, sorry in advance).
Middle East Counter-Information
We will not go into detail about the fall of the Russian aircraft because they are already covered by several news agencies, but we will make an analysis of the truth that lies behind this event.
We start with the report of the news at the exact moment.
Reported by RT and reproduced by our Facebook page 10 min. after the original report.
On our Facebook page we published the news just 10-15 minutes after the report of the fall. In fact, we had not even confirmed it, it was only known that the plane had disappeared from the radar, and Egyptian sources had subsequently reported that the pilot had made contact with air traffic controllers from Turkey. This left us all with the uncertainty of not knowing precisely what happened to the plane: If it had fallen or had reported to be safe.
We did not know that the plane had fallen on Egyptian soil itself, but we anticipated something:
If the plane -full of Russians- had fallen into Egypt, Putin was to blame the incident to the Islamic state, which has a presence in Sinai, through its "Sinai Wilayah" composed of troops of the former formation called " Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis ".
This was the perfect opportunity for Putin, because no matter if the plane had fallen because of "natural" complications like a technical failure, or even an inside job (we do not discard this). The point is that Russia would end up blaming the "evil terrorists" of the crash, causing the international community to support the intensification of its intervention in Syria, and even to expand it to other countries with presence of the IS, as Egypt .
However, only five minutes after our original report, Egypt confirmed that the plane had fallen, killing all passengers aboard.
https://www.rt.com/news/320217-russian-plane-off-radars/
It only remained to see the further development, because as we anticipated, it was handled on the Internet that the plane had not fallen, but had been shot down ...
At that time we started to look for much information as possible about the -confirmed- plane crash, as the place of the incident, if there was an explosion before the crash, what was reported before it, if the pilot had requested permission to forced landing, if the plane had failures before leaving, etc.
We made two updates on the status of the incident:
In this first update, we reported that the Russian agency Interfax notified that Egypt managed a technical failure of the plane as most likely cause of its downfall.
Shortly before that, the agency RIA Novosti notified that the flight crew had complained about engine failures, one week before the incident.
In those moments, the news agencies were already making it clear that the plane had fallen alone, and had not been shot down by anyone.
But at that moment, the VGTRK (All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company), which is an enterprise of the Russian state, reported that the plane had fallen into a closed military zone, where the Egyptian government conducted anti-terrorist operations. This showed that the Russian state was already hinting that there was a "Jet - ISIS" link, that intentional downing of the plane was something they did not exclude, despite what other agencies and governments said:
We research, and we learned that Russian aircraft had requested permission from the Egyptians to make an emergency landing in El Arish.
What does this mean? Why the pilot asked for permission for an emergency landing?... Well, because the Russian aircraft had technical problems and was very likely that these problems derive in a major accident. That is, there was no sign of any "terrorist" threat to him with any weapon. In fact, the plane flew in non IS controlled areas.
More evidence emerged. The pilot told air traffic controllers the plane was a "technical problem" and needed to land as soon as possible.
However, at this stage of the event, internet was full of conspiracy theories. And many of them pointed to "the ISIS shot down the plane," "it was a terrorist attack," etc.
This gave Mr. Vladimir Putin more points to connect the disaster with an intentional demolition of the Islamic State, and then, to take advantage of this, to increase its military presence in the world, with the excuse of that "terrorist attack", although it has been shown that that's a lie .
So it was only a matter of "wait and see" to show how Russia took advantage of a situation to blame someone else, just as happened to the famous flight MH17, toppled by pro-Russian separatist militias, which Putin did everything possible to link to the Ukrainians.
And this was known by the Islamic State... it was only a matter of time before they were falsely accused of an attack on a full-of-Russians aircraft, because they were supposedly angry because the "great (but false) defeats" in Syria at the hands of RuAF.
You may wonder, how Russia could link the Islamic State with the downing of the plane, if it was obvious that the aircraft had technical flaws, that it fell into a non IS controlled territory, that the pilot had requested permission to perform an emergency landing, etc ?.
Well that's easy. Russia is the master of propaganda (or rather, lies). Don't forget that.
We know that the plane was losing altitude steadily, as if it had been turned off. The flying height that had the plane was 9.400 meters when it lost communication with the controllers and vanished from radar. FligthRadar said the plane losing height at a rate of 1.800 meters per minute. This means that the aircraft still managed to fall for more than 5 minutes.
And it ended up falling with the city of El Arish in northern Egypt as the closest point.
Taking all these data, Russia should have been adapted to the circumstances to link the downing of the plane with the Islamic state. But how was this possible? if IS MANPADS's just reach with a 5 km range...
We must know where the Russian plane fell, in order to compare it with the area IS controls and operates in.
We know that the area of operation of the Islamic State includes -but is not limited to- Sheik Zuweid, and a large proportion of desert territory. The Russian plane crashed in an area to south of Sheik Zuweid, where it is not known of the presence of any jihadist.
And now comes the interesting part.
One official explanation that Russia could have used to blame the Islamic State of shooting down the plane, is as follows:
The plane was 9 kilometers high when it disappeared from radar. It began to fall for 5 minutes before crashing. A MANPAD used by the Islamic State has a range of 4.5 kilometers. Whereas the jihadists can be easily moved between the Egyptian desert (and even using regular roads), it was found that a small column of them was not so far from the position of the Russian plane. The jihadists realized that the Russian aircraft with Metrojet brand, was an easy target losing height with each passing second. So they decided to use one of their MANPADS to bring it down. At that moment it was within 5 kilometers high, and this is a situation that made it possible for MANPADS to catch up and damage it in air, causing the falling to be completely unavoidable .
It does not sound so crazy, right? And it is even less crazy if the pro-Russian media agencies continue with the russian game and disseminate their propaganda.
- Another possibility that Russia could have used to blame the Islamic State could have involved a jihadist infiltration that threatened the crew of the aircraft to notify alleged technical faults and forced the pilot to down into suicidal crash.
- Or sabotage the plane itself by any Islamic infiltration.
- Or even that it was "discovered" that the pilot of the plane was radicalized and decided to carry out a suicide mission to beat the Russians.
The possibilities to blame the Islamic State were endless.
As we said before, the Islamic State was sure he would be blamed for the accident, because Russia had all the necessary elements to involve it, and that even with the preliminary evidence that pointed to an accident.
So it is at this moment when someone -we do not know if Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi or a close member- makes a decision that we didn't foresee:
The Islamic State would claim the downing of the Russian aircraft
Certain number of hours after the event have occurred, the Islamic State released an audio tape and many images claiming the downing of the russian aircraft.
The communiques were released in Arabic, Urdu, English, French, Turkish, Bosnian and German, and even a formal audio of al-Bayan, in Arabic, was also released.
The original audio is in this link.
This means that the Islamic State took seriously the disclosure of the "attack", because they never launched its communiques in so many languages simultaneously.
But why?
This was the propaganda strategy of the Islamic State:
Russia has already lied with its involvement in Ukraine, it lied with the support of the pro-Russian rebels in that country, it lied with the plane MH17, it lied when it denied its involvement in Syria, and then with the support -with bombing- to al-Assad, It is normal for us to expect being accused of this accident, and then that Russia will decide to use it as an excuse to increase its military capability in Syria and even extend it to other countries in Middle East. So why not get ahead of Putin, and better we ascribe the alleged "attack" before the Russians do? Anyway, if they're going to blame us...
We are reporting on the war of civilizations in the Middle East for months, and we know (or we believe) how IS propaganda works. We can assure our readers that when an event of any kind is carried out by IS, the statements appear within a few seconds or minutes.
If, for example, IS conquer new territory, or decides to attack a city, or bring down a high enemy command, the statement of that action appears simultaneously with the operation, because this is something planned and has perfect execution times. And, when a secret-like operation is carried out, it is also reported, maybe later -when success is confirmed- but WITH PROOFS.
However, in this case the attack took 4-5 hours to be claimed. There has never been such a long delay between ops-statement without proof, so maybe this time, the delay explains how IS planned to take advantage of the accident.
Another interesting point of these statement is that the Islamic State NEVER said what method was used to shut down the plane. It never said if their Wilayah used MANPADS, a bomb, the complicity of the crew, etc. Why? Because that is what they were going to leave to Russia, because Russia were going to invent the way that the plane had been "taken down" after "serious" research. (Think again in how Russia lied with the MH17 case)...
Moreover, the IS DID NOT PUBLISH any evidence of the plane being shooting down by them. It did not leaked any OFFICIAL (or semiofficial) video or photo, or anything. Again, why? Because these proofs simply do not exist.
We can say that this strategy was planned by a genius. The benefits for the Islamic State are many, and for Russia, the disadvantages are also enormous.
What happened when the Islamic State claimed an attack that never existed? What does IS won with it (even without proof)?
It's simple: The claim gave IS the following advantages:
- The IS could boast of its global presence, saying, 'Look, we are here, we do not only operate in Syria and Iraq, we are a global-scale movement'.
- Russia, a "powerful" country would be look as a vulnerable target to the military strength of IS, which, according to Western media (Mainly Russia Today), was assumed in disarray because of "russian precision bombing" in Syria... LOL
- The Egyptian government would see its tourism industry severely affected.
- Moderate Islamic rebels and other forces in the world would see the IS as a huge movement, capable of hitting Russia, and then, the IS ranks would automatically increased by the admiration of some islamists (it is proven that this happened. Sources report that even moderate rebels in Syria, praised the alleged IS revenge on Russia).
- The panic would erupt between global population, which would require governments involved in Syria bombing, to stop operations and leave the US-led coalition, for fear of being victims of a similar attack in any part of the world.
- And don't forget al-Shabab... Somali jihadists are also on the scene, the splitted AQ movement would increase in part, their desire to join IS... because AQ never achieved something like this.
And, even more important than this, what about Russia?
- Russia could not say spectacularly that "the ISIS shot down the plane".
- Russia could not say that the attack never existed, we mean, IS just claimed responsibility!, There is no need of proofs if someone accept its implication... right? (<- That's the average westerner opinion). If Russia denies IS implication, it would then be considered as a country that is afraid of the jihadists and tries to hide the truth of its air-defeat.
So it was better for IS to claim the attack?... well, you know what your opinion is, but we believe that it was better for them to claim something before the russian bear attacked.
What can we expect in the near future?
There are two possibilities, but both are very dangerous for Russia, and both are nothing but a defeat for its politics.
- One possibility is that Russia decided to follow the line of truth, and say that everything was an accident, and that the Islamic State lied.
- The other possibility is to blame the Islamic State of the act of "terrorism", and use the "attack" for its own benefit.
However, both alternatives leave Russia wounded, because if they decide to ensure that it was just an accident, they could not exploit its implications against IS. And even with this, a good part of the global opinion will accuse Russia of "covering up" or "liars" because this global opinion believes that the IS really shot down the plane.
Now, if it decide to proclaim that it was an attack, the consequences will be mostly those above. And this is also a defeat. And a victory for IS, which has nothing to lose.
Let's see how this develops, but right now it seems that Russia will decide to use the first option, and declare that it was an accident to minimize the possible damage done by the propaganda strategy of the Islamic State.
Although we not exclude that Russia will do the same, and then design an innovative counterpropaganda strategy. We mean, we are talking about Russia. So anything is possible.
And what is IS going to do?
Now it is very risky to conclude something, but we think that the following scenarios are possible:
- The Islamic State will do nothing. And it will just sit down and see how the whole problem affects Russia (lol) (which would be smart).
- Make it even more clever and persistent, and in the coming hours or days it will be dedicated to fabricate evidence to support its initial claim, and this would be EVEN WORSE for Russia. By this we mean, for example, that IS will be engaged in designing a "compelling evidence" that prove they shot down the plane. Something like a picture of a militant infiltrated in the aircraft, a proof of a bomb inside it, a video "explaining" how the alleged attack took place, or anything else, just to annoy Russia and leave it to the world as a country that tries to cover a lie under the mask of an "accident".
The best option for IS is to execute the second option, because Russia will feel what many other opponents in its wars have felt unfairly (with opponents we mean fundamentalists, Ukrainians , or whatever), and will try a taste of their own medicine, and will be for the first time in years, a real victim of enemy propaganda...
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PART 2: WHERE DID THE "RUSSIAN PLANE FOOTAGE" COME FROM? (Written on 06/11/15)
We know that there is a "video proof" of the russian plane -that reached every single corner of this sad planet-, claiming that the op was carried out by the IS.
First-class analysts (like Ostaeyen, Horowitz, al-Tamimi, Nanninga, etc [if someone missing, sorry, not intended]) doesn't believe this footage is real (right? lol). So we want to use this space to explain and present our results on this topic to the public to support this view.
FIRST.- Here you have a useful wiki page that contains some relevant points about 7K9268 plane.
http://acloserlookonsyria.shoutwiki.com/wiki/Crash_of_Kolavia_flight_7K9268
SECOND.- At bottom, are presented some details of the fake video. For example, that there are at least 2 versions of it. One containing the Wilayah Sinai logo at the start, and the other, containing the Aamaq News Agency logo, but without the Wilayah one.
We took this as a reference, and started to search for the ORIGINAL LEAKED VIDEO.
As you can see, one of the earliest versions uploaded on October 31, is this:
Of course it is deleted.
BUT we managed to find -what seems to be- the original leak, that was published by a PALESTINIAN called Mohammed Khaled.
THIRD.- The video we found, was uploaded EVEN BEFORE the one which A Closer Look On Syria posted.
The link of the original video we found is:
Data:
Title: الطائرة الروسية ولاية سيناء فيديو اسقاط الطائرة.
Upload Time (UTC): 11:49:18 (+1 hour before the earliest version known to date)
Upload Date (YYYY/MM/DD): 2015-10-31
Video ID: LxAQ2xosg5U
Why we assume that Mohammed Khaled leaked the video to internet?
He was THE FIRST person on Twitter to publish it. (And we all know that all the news and breaking viral videos come from Twitter).
https://twitter.com/search?f=tweets&vertical=default&q=LxAQ2xosg5U&src=typd
He shared it at -claimed by Twitter- 4:49 A.M. on OCTOBER 31. ----- Do you remember when was it uploaded?:
Upload Time (UTC): 11:49:18
Voilà ! It was uploaded to youtube at 11:49 A.M. , and Khaled shared it on Twitter at 11:49 A.M. (UTC)!
So, HE UPLOADED IT TO YOUTUBE, AND IMMEDIATELY SHARED IT ON TWITTER... SAME MINUTE, SAME HOUR, THE FIRST PERSON TO SHARE IT.
We dont have captions of the LxAQ2xosg5U video, because is deleted, BUT we managed to obtain a thumbnail ! :D
Someone just shared it on Facebook, and this small Thumbnail could be saved. It comes from the middle part of the video, when a stupid-like B/W effect is applied to the footage.
This is the source of the thumbnail:
So now is 100% confirmed that Khaled uploaded the first video of the alleged russian plane crash footage...
He even shared it more times because you don't make a video viral just with one post LOL
And it worked ! Some minutes later the video was circulating among some palestinians and after that, among MENA, and then the entire world, including IS tweeps...
BUT some IS tweeps didn't accept that the video was real. In fact, they refused to share or comment on any unofficial footage:
Who was the second person to share the video?
ALMOST AT THE SAME TIME ! 4:49 OR 11:49 UTC !
And we will not give details, but this guy is Khaled-related. Just conduct your own research, and find out that Khaled and Ahmad are on Twitter, Facebook, etc. And we dont know who specifically created the video, but the answer is out there.
FOUR.- There are BASIC errors on the footage:
You can't use an old Wilayah logo for a IS-video...
Someone corrected the footage, removed the Wilayah Logo, and attached the semiofficial Aamaq News Agency one... LOL
https://www.facebook.com/b.nntser.998/videos/191560971180091/
So guys, if you want to know where the footage comes from, you know who ask... (he didn't respond our messages).
FINALLY: AGAIN. WE ARE JUST AMATEUR ANALYSTS, AND WE SUPPORT THE ISLAMIC PEOPLE, EVEN WHEN WE ARE NOT MUSLIMS. WE HOPE THAT RUSSIA UNDERSTAND THAT THERE ARE NO SERIOUS BUSINESS FOR ITS BOMBS IN SYRIA, THAT THERE ARE CHILDREN WOMEN AND ELDERLY PEOPLE THAT WANT TO LIVE IN PEACE (WITH SHARIA OR WITHOUT IT, IT'S STILL A DECISION THAT ONLY CONCERN TO THEM). SO PLEASE RUSSIA, USA, AND ALLIES, STOP BOMBING MARKETS, CIVILIAN HOUSES, ROADS, CAMPS, AND TAKE THIS EPISODE SERIOUSLY, BECAUSE MIDDLE EAST IS NOT THE SAME, AND JIHADI MOVEMENTS ARE SMARTER AND THEIR DESIRE OF REVENGE IS HUGE, AND WE, WESTERNERS, DON'T BELIEVE YOUR LIES ANYMORE.